Brazilian Real is at 3.06 against the USD!

283POSTS

11 years ago

This is the highest it's been since August 2004. How聽 much worse can it get? I guess I won't be taking any trips abroad anytime soon.聽聽

聽聽But now would be a good time to invite my family to come visit from the U.S.

I moved here 6 months ago. I've noticed that the cost of certain goods in my city (Campinas) have risen about 10%. That's quite a leap in 6 months!

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AdvogadoRodrigues Member

18POSTS

11 years ago

Good evening!
However, I see not just me as a real estate lawyer with a focus on foreign investor as many Brazilians who are abroad and many foreigners also that this is the most propitious moment for Brazilian or foreign buy property in Brazil, is to live, rent or by way of investment. With the 1x3 dollar against the real property in Brazil are a steal! Investing in hotels, hostels and hostel is the best time !!!

Boa noite!
Entretanto, vejo n茫o s贸 eu como advogado imobili谩rio com foco no investidor estrangeiro quanto muitos brasileiros que est茫o no exterior e muitos estrangeiros tamb茅m que este 茅 o momento mais propicio para brasileiro ou mesmo o estrangeiro adquirir im贸veis no Brasil, seja para residir, alugar ou mesmo a t铆tulo de investimento. Com o dolar a 1x3 em rela莽茫o ao real im贸veis no brasil est茫o uma pechincha! Investir em hoteis, pousadas e hostel 茅 a melhor hora!!!

1 member reacted to this post

ajcardenas Member

1POSTS

11 years ago

I hear ya. I have been here since Feb. 2014 and I've done nothing but watch this rise and rise.

Bardamu Serial expat

607POSTS

11 years ago

AdvogadoRodrigues wrote:
Good evening!
However, I see not just me as a real estate lawyer with a focus on foreign investor as many Brazilians who are abroad and many foreigners also that this is the most propitious moment for Brazilian or foreign buy property in Brazil, is to live, rent or by way of investment. With the 1x3 dollar against the real property in Brazil are a steal! Investing in hotels, hostels and hostel is the best time !!!

Really? "the most propitious moment for Brazilian or foreign buy property in Brazil". This is incredible how property agent/broker can writte incredible statements to sell their stuff ! Everybody actually thinks in Brazil (and in the world)聽 that it is the worst time to invest in Brazil (and it is why real is so low). The fact that real is cheap for foreigners paying in US$ is true but investors do not see only the price but the risk and futur returns. Risk is extremelly (see risk agencies rating); returns won't get better until a few years.聽 All paramenters in Brazilian economy are red; political instabilty, lava jato stopped Petrobras investements (and from other Estaduals), no need any more for brazilian commodities, etc...Certainly all investors have reasons to not invest in Brazil.
And it is why you find in Brazil a lot of commercial and private properties empty. If you buy, you need to buy very cheap.

spanishpete Serial expat

772POSTS

11 years ago

you think the dollar is High, have a look at the pound 拢4,60 to the real,
the country should sell Petrobras , no government in the world can run a business, there just no go at it,
look at the UK when Margaret Thatcher come to power, the socialist had run the country in to the ground, and she picked up and changed it to what is now,, great Lady
I think they need one here

AdvogadoRodrigues Member

18POSTS

11 years ago

1 member reacted to this post

AdvogadoRodrigues Member

18POSTS

11 years ago

Bardamu wrote:
AdvogadoRodrigues wrote:
Good evening!
However, I see not just me as a real estate lawyer with a focus on foreign investor as many Brazilians who are abroad and many foreigners also that this is the most propitious moment for Brazilian or foreign buy property in Brazil, is to live, rent or by way of investment. With the 1x3 dollar against the real property in Brazil are a steal! Investing in hotels, hostels and hostel is the best time !!!

Really? "the most propitious moment for Brazilian or foreign buy property in Brazil". This is incredible how property agent/broker can writte incredible statements to sell their stuff ! Everybody actually thinks in Brazil (and in the world)聽 that it is the worst time to invest in Brazil (and it is why real is so low). The fact that real is cheap for foreigners paying in US$ is true but investors do not see only the price but the risk and futur returns. Risk is extremelly (see risk agencies rating); returns won't get better until a few years.聽 All paramenters in Brazilian economy are red; political instabilty, lava jato stopped Petrobras investements (and from other Estaduals), no need any more for brazilian commodities, etc...Certainly all investors have reasons to not invest in Brazil.
And it is why you find in Brazil a lot of commercial and private properties empty. If you buy, you need to buy very cheap.

Unlike thinking'm not real estate agent, I am a lawyer and contrary to what you think and think you know, both you and risk agencies speculate very negatively the situation of Brazil. It is clear that the situation of Petrobras is worrying, but agribusiness continues producing and feeding the world, the automobile industry sold 10% less in January and February compared to 2014, but 120% profit on each car produces and sells, the dollar has risen its value against all currencies in the world, not only in Brazil!
The US real estate bubble was not able to destroy the American economy will not be the Petrobras crisis that will destroy the economy of Brazil. In every crisis there is always a good business opportunity is only observe the market.
The dollar on the value that is in relation to the real favors only those who have money to invest in property, or dreams acquire a property in Brazil, it is certain that the dollar's been worth 1x3 and last for more than five years has stabilized at R $ 1.70 + or- !!!
Investing means planting, watering and harvesting the end. Who want quick profit invest in the stock market, Petrobras shares surrendered to market speculators lot of money !!!

Bardamu Serial expat

607POSTS

11 years ago

Brazil economy is powefull but economy signals are red and there is no improvment to expect soon. Risk agencies sometimes are wrong but they do no speculate. No conspiracy here, just the result of bad economic numbers.聽 Real is actually one of the currency that lost the most vs US$. But my statement was actually to highlight that it is not because US$ is high(so investment supposidelly cheap for investor) that it would be a good idea to invest.That the inverse :high US$ signifies that investors think that the risk is to high vs potential return.
This is funny all Brasiliana take critics of Brasil very personnal. In private, all Brasilians don't stop to critic economic and political situation but in public prefer to say all his fine. This is like Dilma and secretary of economy Mantega who said after 2008 worldwide crisis that聽 there was no crisis in Brasil. Then for the last year put all the blame on the crisis. I can understand national pride but in order to resolve an issue, first step is to recognize the issue.聽 Speaking about national pride, president of senat and president of assembly have been named in lava jato opration. This is really shamefull.
To finish, I fell the right to critic this situation in Brasil because I love this country, my wife and my three children are brazilians, I invested here and I pay my taxes. You cannot imagine how harshly I critic my own country (France) because it is (also) a mess.聽 Feel free to do the same.

1 member reacted to this post

rc206 Contributor

151POSTS

11 years ago

#10

You are right. The dollar now is 3.13 to the real! I love it ! I predicted this and none of by friends believed me. I think it may get close or at 4 to 1 . It hasn't been this good since I first came to Brazil in 2002 . Texas economy is the best in America . I can't wait to visit Natal and Fortaleza to find a beach house. The internet prices for houses are 50% to 70% over priced.The Gringo price! lol I am finding beach houses prices dropping . You just have to have local Brazilian friend to look for you ! Life is good !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

spanishpete Serial expat

772POSTS

11 years ago

#11

Here in Iguaba Grande聽 the price of property are all over the place, I fell that Brazilians聽 property's owner's really believe its a seller's market,
They don't have a clue, not a clue,
they's loads of different types of property for sale, and even more, just left rotting,
we bought a places here. It took 1 1/2 years before it was paid for in full, But the good thing is, we lived in it rent free until the Brazilians had done all the legal things, correct,
but what we found, its the way they try and do things here,
I think, here in Iguaba, and probably the whole of brazil, someone with a mind, could live in brazil rent free, and move from place to place on the pretext of buying property

rc206 Contributor

151POSTS

11 years ago

#12

I agree with you but I have been saying for 2 years that the dollar will get to 4-1 on the real. Then I will be looking to buy rental property in Northeast Brazil. Its great news for me but bad for the Brazilians. Just like here in Texas.Gas prices have dropped a lot and its great for my cab business but it's hurting our economy.I want to move to Brazil but I thing buying rental property first is better.Then if I decide to move .I can always do it later and still have the extra income.

rc206 Contributor

151POSTS

11 years ago

#13

It got up to 3.31 and now is 3.17 .I think it will rise again to 4-1 .

James ViP

11272POSTS

11 years ago

#14

The standing joke with most Brazilians is...

What's going to hit Five Reais first, the US dollar, a liter of gasoline or Petrobras shares???

Sad part is that the answer is anybody's guess.

1 member reacted to this post

NOLAZACK Member

10POSTS

11 years ago

#15

So how has this affected the real estate market??

AdvogadoRodrigues Member

18POSTS

11 years ago

#16

Nolazack,
Affected only in investments, because with the rise in the dollar against the real basic interest rate is also affected and this in turn affects the financing in construction and real estate financing.
But keep saying, for the stranger who want to invest in real estate in Brazil
this is the best time because the rise in the dollar against the real leaves the property here cheaper.
Today one US dollar is worth three times more than a real, so the value in US dollars that bought a house a year ago in Brazil today to buy two buildings and a half.
This is rather the time from abroad or even Brazilian invest in real estate in Brazil, but is only advisable for investors who can wait a year or two to negotiate!

James ViP

11272POSTS

11 years ago

#17

The real estate market is slowing down a bit, but the bubble hasn't burst. Prices are relatively stable. So with the higher value of the US Dollar, it is actually a good time to buy. This is especially true in S茫o Paulo where construction companies are offering discounts (some up to 30-40 percent) to try and reduce their stockpile of apartments. Between any discounts and the difference in exchange rate you can make a killing.

Cheers,
James

Cabo Frio Active member

55POSTS

11 years ago

#18

AdvogadoRodrigues wrote:
Nolazack,
Affected only in investments, because with the rise in the dollar against the real basic interest rate is also affected and this in turn affects the financing in construction and real estate financing.
But keep saying, for the stranger who want to invest in real estate in Brazil
this is the best time because the rise in the dollar against the real leaves the property here cheaper.
Today one US dollar is worth three times more than a real, so the value in US dollars that bought a house a year ago in Brazil today to buy two buildings and a half.
This is rather the time from abroad or even Brazilian invest in real estate in Brazil, but is only advisable for investors who can wait a year or two to negotiate!

Think Brazil have just seen the beginning of the downturn yet, Everyone is talking about PB and lava jato but much more important for the economy is the real estate market and there the downturn have just started - in my opinion a crack has already started and that will accellerate when the milions employed in that industry start loosing their jobs - only reason this is not already on top of the news is because of the bad/missing statistics regarding house sales and prices

In addition the BNDES is another scandal just waiting to happen and when it pops it might be much bigger that lava jato - just see what is happening with Sete Brazil at the moment - a company created to build 29 FPSO's, funded by BNDES and now they are already unable to pay there bills before a single vessel has been delivered. And Sete is just one example out of many, many.

Unfortunately Brazil did not use the good years to try to make necessary reforms to either labor laws or burocracy - you can't keep on increasing wages forever without improving productivity and Brazil has closed their markets for outside competition instead of improving productivity. That is a choice a contry can make but the consequence is a much lower standard of living.

What we are seeing in Brazil now is a bust and it has just started. I expect at least a 50% drop in house prices within the next couple of years and even that might be optimistic.

2 members reacted to this post

James ViP

11272POSTS

11 years ago

#19

Well, my personal perspective on the value of real estate dropping by 50% over the next few years is that it might just be overstating things a bit. First of all it's a very subjective generalization and also depends on a number of different factors, not the least of which is the location.

I know that in smaller cities and in neighborhoods, where the municipal government is making big investments in improvements (like here in Maca茅 - RJ) the properties are valuating. Guess this is the real problem with the Brazilian cultural tendency toward lacking vision, foresight.

That said, property values all over Brazil have been rising over the past years, and I think artificially so. A drop in values, which is after all probably more cyclical in nature, than related to the current economic slowdown actually brings prices more in line with their "real" values. You're never going to see anything like the sub-prime crisis here in Brazil where the bottom dropped out of the real estate market. Why not? Well that's easy, it's because the Central Bank and the most complex banking regulations in the world (which I have often complained about in the past) won't offer conditions for that to happen. It's about the ONLY really good aspect of the strict banking regulations that exists.

Brazil is in the midst of an economic slowdown, yes. But eventually things will pick up again. There still is economic growth in this country, it just isn't as much as the rosy predictions of government. There is still room to make a profit on investing in this country if you're looking at the long-term. If you are thinking of buying a home here now isn't such a bad time to do so, in my opinion. Providing of course you're looking at it from the perspective of being YOUR home and a long-term investment. The values are sure to climb again, but if you're just looking to flip properties and make a quick buck, that ain't gonna happen right now Charley Brown!

With property values dipping slightly, the strong US Dollar and discounts for paying in cash to purchase (something Brazilians can't afford to do, but many expats can) you can find some great deals right now. When things start to improve again - and they most surely will - you'll be sitting pretty and your property values will start climbing again, albeit more in tune with reality.

Just my two centavos.

Cheers,
James聽聽聽 Expat-blog Experts Team

spanishpete Serial expat

772POSTS

10 years ago

#20

hi everyone
have you seen the pound real exchange rate,
R$4.83 to the pound

spanishpete Serial expat

772POSTS

10 years ago

#21

have you seen the real against the brattish pound its 拢5.35
the real is going to go a lot lower and its all down to oil

GuestPoster136 Guest

0POSTS

10 years ago

#22

I'm happy 1 usd - 3.42! Household goods ship in a month!!

spanishpete Serial expat

772POSTS

10 years ago

#23

i hop getting your item's in go OK for you,聽 But don't forget the very greedy tax man

VictoriaChandler Serial expat

283POSTS

10 years ago

#24

Up to 3.74!

spanishpete Serial expat

772POSTS

10 years ago

#25

5.74 to the pound

Bardamu Serial expat

607POSTS

10 years ago

#26

4.22 to the Euro !

VictoriaChandler Serial expat

283POSTS

10 years ago

#27

Nossa!

stevefunk Serial expat

671POSTS

10 years ago

#28

All "developing" countries currencies are crashing to the dollar right now
Brazil was聽 insulated from the 2008 financial crisis but this time around it looks like it's hitting full force
It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better....I think Brazil is looking at 5 - 10 lean years

Cabo Frio Active member

55POSTS

10 years ago

#29

Yes all currecies has dropped compared to the US dollar during the last year - and that is completely normal because of the strengthening of the the US economy after the 2007 crash. But the Brazilian real has weakened much more than other currencies due to internal issues. And then there is variations based on how reliant the various contries are on commodity exports which is more due to the slowdown in China.

But Brasil has bigger problems than most contries due to the extremely high public expenditures - they have not used the good years with high commodity prices to increase spending on investments that would improve productivity, ie education or ifrastructure, but rather increased salaries and public spending without any justification in the economy. Most of the public budgets are already tied up in salaries and pensions payments so, due to the high increases in both the last 15 years, there is no flexibility.

Unless the government and congress cut expenses they will face a budget deficit of 8-9% next year and then we talk about banana repulic figures (Greece has never been close to that kind of problems and they had a rich uncle that could save them)

So there is a very good reason why the real has lost value and unless we get a miraculous recovery in commodity pricies it will contiune because the Brazilian congress will certainly not grow up and behave responsible

1 member reacted to this post

stevefunk Serial expat

671POSTS

10 years ago

#30

Depends ....the South African rand has dropped from around 8 to the dollar in early 2013 to about 14 to the dollar now!
It's also a brics country going through almost identical problems with inequality and politics at the moment- public outcry to impeach the president etc
Although funnily enough the rand has gained to the Real although they have both devalued drastically to the Dollar

James ViP

11272POSTS

10 years ago

#31

Playing with my graphics program just for fun again.......

http://i1320.photobucket.com/albums/u531/wjwoodward/R4_zpscyexpx57.jpg

Cheers,
James

1 member reacted to this post

spanishpete Serial expat

772POSTS

10 years ago

#32

R$5.85 now to the poound

VictoriaChandler Serial expat

283POSTS

10 years ago

#33

Now that Brazil's credit rating has been downgraded to "junk" status by Standard & Poor (and I'm pretty sure that Fitch and Moody's will follow suit), we will see the Brazilian Real lose even more ground. It will be probably 4:1 against the USD by next week and 4.5 (at best) by the end of the year unless something drastic is done by this completely incompetent Brazilian government.聽

I don't know why I didn't change my Brazilian money into USD back in March when the Real crossed the 3:1 threshold. Looking back at all my various posts on just this blog alone, I already knew the worst was yet to come.聽

Cabo Frio Active member

55POSTS

10 years ago

#34

You should have listened to me聽

spanishpete Serial expat

772POSTS

10 years ago

#35

2 to 3 years worth of going down,
the pound real exchange rate is now R$5.98

stevefunk Serial expat

671POSTS

10 years ago

#36

There's an economic theory though called the "swimming pool theory"
where you take one of those plastic pool chlorine floater things and drag it down the the bottom , when you release it it shoots up very rapidly, the lower the bottom the faster , harder and higher it shoots up , and emerging market currencies tend to be like that, they tend to have dramatic rebounds when you last expect it. I think there's going to be at least another year of weak real personally but I wouldn't be surprised to see it bounce back within 24 months , although I doubt you will ever see more than 2.9 to the dollar ever again . That's my theory anyway

spanishpete Serial expat

772POSTS

10 years ago

#37

its all down to trust and honour
can you trust "Brazil" to pay the people, that have lone it money,
and will the Brazilian honour all there agreement's to pay the lone, back.
before you say anything, think of Argentina

James ViP

11272POSTS

10 years ago

#38

https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/12004793_761270907310191_7691137749056677870_n.jpg?oh=8a1bed2043dd645e16dedccfc62cf6c1&oe=566B792E&__gda__=1453163588_6802ff4ee5204c9428fe39c2b2694322

I FOUND A DOLLAR ON THE GROUND

Pretty soon this is going to be a grim reality and not just a joke. Right now the Real is worth....聽 25.7 CENTS

Cheers,
James聽聽聽 Expat-blog Experts Team