Despite tighter reforms in global powers, immigration remains a vital engine for growth.聽This聽is the conclusion of the latest report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on the issue. Let's break it down.
Immigration: An indispensable growth factor聽for聽major聽economies
Published on May 2nd, the is cautious yet highlights a return to growth. Although modest, growth remains steady: +3.1% in 2023. The聽same聽figure聽is expected聽this year. The OECD forecasts a slight increase in global GDP in 2025 (3.2%).聽These figures are聽considered聽relatively high聽given聽the geopolitical context.
The report highlights significant "immigration flows" in several OECD countries in 2023. This was notably the case in Australia, Canada (both countries have since taken measures to restrict the number of new immigrants), the United States, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Despite Brexit and a range of measures to toughen immigration conditions, the UK continues to attract foreign workers.
Immigration remains a sensitive issue in many states that aim to tighten controls while recognizing their reliance on foreign workers. The OECD report notes the direct impact of these workers on growth. In the UK, foreign labor contributed to just over one percentage聽point聽of growth. It's +1.5 points for Australia, Canada, Spain, and Sweden (despite Sweden's stricter immigration policy). The figures rise to nearly 3.5 points of growth in Ireland and 3.7 points in Portugal. These levels far exceed those observed during the 2010-2019 period. While the impact of foreign labor is less significant in France (nearly 0.5 points), it remains a "benefit," as indicated by the Economic Analysis Council (CAE) in 2021. The organization, which is part of the executive branch, has聽been advocating聽for聽.
Foreign workers to fill labor shortages聽
These figures should聽be considered聽alongside significant labor shortages in 2021-2023.聽The United States, Canada, Japan, and eurozone countries聽were particularly affected by these shortages.聽In the US, 1.5 to 2% of businesses reported recruitment difficulties during this period. While this percentage might seem low, it represents 9 to 12 million unfilled jobs in 2021-2023. At the peak of the crisis (end of 2022), nearly 2% of Canadian businesses faced recruitment difficulties. The figure exceeds 2.5% for the eurozone. Although it has gradually decreased since 2023, it remains聽quite聽high (around 1.6%).聽The decline is more pronounced in the US (1%)聽and especially聽in Canada, which falls below the 0% mark.
However, companies in Japan continue to聽struggle聽with recruitment.聽The figure has聽been on the rise聽since the health crisis and exceeded 1.5% at the beginning of 2024. Japan faces the dual challenges of demographics and migration. Yet, the country prefers a slow approach to immigration (notably through reforming work permits and creating new work visas).
Immigration policies: Divergent visions among states聽
During his re-election campaign,聽Joe聽Biden聽has been聽associating聽growth with immigration.聽Speaking on May 1st at a fundraising event for his campaign, he asserted that immigration fosters the economic development of the United States. He attributed the difficulties of China, Russia, India, and Japan to their "xenophobia."聽聽
But his remarks聽came as聽a surprise, especially for Japan, a long-term ally of the US. While Prime Minister Kishida聽was lavishly welcomed聽in Washington in early April, he聽is now equated聽with the adversaries of the US. The country reacted on May 3rd, labeling Biden's comments聽as聽"regrettable". The White House spokesperson tried to smooth things over, citing the historic alliance between the two countries, but to no avail. Japan defended itself against accusations of xenophobia and justified its migration policy.
Was it a blunder?聽Biden had been working to strengthen ties聽not only with Japan but also with聽India to counter China's expansion in the Pacific.聽Power dynamics remain crucial amid significant geopolitical instability. Global growth reveals deep disparities between regions.
The US shows robust economic health (+2.5% growth in 2023). India's +6.6% growth is enough to make many European economies envious as the eurozone stagnates. Germany, the heavyweight, struggles with just +0.2% growth projected this year. The country emerged from 2023, marked by recession (-0.3% growth). To revive growth, Germany has embarked on immigration reform. Its challenge: attract and retain foreign talent.
What are the impacts聽for聽immigration plans?聽
Immigration is indispensable for countries. But what migration policy should be adopted? While all powers agree on prioritizing economic immigration, their methods diverge. Observers are closely watching Canada, a land known for its open immigration policy (though subject to specific criteria, such as the points-based permit).聽What will聽be聽the impact of the cap on聽the number of foreign nationals decided by the Ministry of Immigration?
The world's attention also turns to the UK, where Prime Minister Sunak intends to welcome wealthy investors and highly skilled foreign professionals with open arms鈥攂ut only them. His recent measures (taken in April and May) make moving abroad plans even more challenging. Meanwhile, we should not ignore emigration hotspots. Italy, Croatia, and Eastern European countries are losing residents and failing to attract foreign professionals due to inadequate immigration policies. However, the pressing demographic challenge might push these states to rethink their migration policies.
