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1openmind wrote:

Oh luckily the Covid vaccines have already started. Question is will the allow foreigners who鈥檝e been vaccinated entry without Quarantine?

Here鈥檚 the big problem.听
1.听 Will the vaccines actually work
2.听 Currently vaccines have been 鈥減redicted鈥� to be 70/90% effective.

Given the 70/90% effective rate , that would indicate its likely a plane of 300 passengers would have possibly 30 to 90 passengers Positive to Covid.听 听

Given that....Australia & Thailand this week have stated that quarantine 14 days will stay in place after a vaccine is rolled out.听 听Unless the 鈥渆xperts鈥� can prove beyond doubt the vaccines are 100% effective we could be seeing quarantine for years to come as Australia have stated.听

After all it only takes one infected passenger to slip thru & screw up an entire country鈥檚 health & economy.

Ontheroad57 wrote:

Given the 70/90% effective rate , that would indicate its likely a plane of 300 passengers would have possibly 30 to 90 passengers Positive to Covid.听 听
.

It's more like 95% for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. And it's unlikely that there would be 100% rates of infectivity (which is different from rates of infection). Take the US. Current active cases are 8.3 million (out of a population of 332 million) = 0.025%. In your 300 passenger plane you might think about 8 would be active covid cases WITHOUT the vaccine. But people who are active with the virus are not necessarily actively shedding the virus. But let's ignore that as it is complicated by the degree of illness.

So if one solely relied on vaccination as the main determinant of flight allowance you might have one out of 300 cases of a person with Covid听 on the flight.

But what if you also linked that with TESTING. Authorised Covid tests range in effectiveness from 90-95% (rtAntigen tests) to the rtAntibody tests 99-99.8%. Certain rt Antigen tests will no longer useful for some who have received vaccines. It will "appear" that they have been previously been infected (or have an active infection).

So if you used the latter (RtAntigen) test in conjunction with the vaccine the probability would drop to 1 person on 100 flights being infected (1/30,000). And remember, that's based on a current high infection level like the USA. With more people vaccinated that is likely to drop. People from countries that have better control of the pandemic will have much lower infection rates.

Countries could also simply monitor the situation in the origin countries of passengers. They could offer a "NO QT" policy for those from Green or Yellow Zone nations who have been vaccinated and have a rtAntibody test. The risk might be something like 1/200,000 passengers in such a procedure.