Hurricane Season 2017

190POSTS

9 years ago

Here's a link of the article

So far they have predicted:
-Eleven to 17 named storms 鈥� including April's Tropical Storm Arlene.
-Five to 9 of which would become hurricanes.
-Two to 4 of which would become major hurricanes.

Next update to be released in June which is when hurricane season starts.

2 members reacted to this post

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ReyP ViP

5509POSTS

9 years ago

I looked at the video and there is something I think is very important in the video, and that is the tracks or routes that the storms took last year. None were very close to PR, the island gets grazed on occasion and hardly ever gets a direct hit, it is in a very special location that gets missed most of the time.

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lgustaf Serial expat

401POSTS

9 years ago

PR is in a bit of a sweet spot when it comes to hurricanes in the Caribbean, for a variety of reasons that have to do with ocean currents, water temperatures, location and topography.

Because hurrianes approach the island from the south (after originating in Africa), and with PR having a mountainous interior, the north side of the island is largely protected. My apartment in VSJ is in a great spot, on the north side protected by a wall. It was one of the聽 reasons I picked PR as opposed to Belize.

Mrkpytn Serial expat

373POSTS

9 years ago

I remember being in Puerto Rico a few days after Georges hit PR. It was nothing like聽 Hurricane Andrew where I was just north of Miami.聽聽I went to El Yunque and聽 it was basically stripped of all its leaves and snapped bamboo but the trees were not blown over. I think the mountains sheer the wind. Vieques got hit badly. Water is the concern in the mountains and a tropical depression can do a lot of damage.

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ReyP ViP

5509POSTS

9 years ago

With all the rain and storms, I never understood how people build houses on stills at the edge of a mountain. Same for a earthquake

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adlin20 ViP

1057POSTS

9 years ago

I have heard some of the old timers around town saying this may be a bad season because of all the rain. How true that will be is still early to say. For those new to the island, prepare yourself, have bottled water and dry provisions for a couple of days. Make sure you have enough fuel to last you at least a week. One of the reasons propane stoves are so common is the ability to cook even without electricity. With the situation of the island, if a hurricane hits and causes damages to the infrastructure, repairs will take longer so make sure you're prepared.
Good thing about hurricanes is that you have time to prepare. Don't be surprised if the neighbors are throwing a party and drinking. Hurricanes category 1-3 are significant of partying for some of the locals.

Gary ViP

1845POSTS

9 years ago

Some links that are handy for the season:
- National Hurricane Center,聽 offical site from NOAA
- THE storm information site. Take many of the predictions of "wish casters" with a grain of salt. Pay attention to what the pro-mets write.
Information from the islands, handy tool "How close will it get".
Dr. Jeff Masters knows a lot about hurricanes, read his blog entries.
Puerto Rico radar
Caribbean satellite loop
for the big picture

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Gary ViP

1845POSTS

9 years ago

Tracks of hurricanes that hit PR:

https://prd-wret.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/5_2.jpg

Click here for a larger version

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lgustaf Serial expat

401POSTS

9 years ago

The track map is very interesting.

Notice there have only been two hurricans of any consequence in the last 30 years. Meteorologists and oceanographers speculate this is because global warming has increased ocean temperatures further north, pulling the storms further into the Gulf, Western Caribbean and Eastern Seaboard.

Gary ViP

1845POSTS

9 years ago

#10

That has been the trend, yes.
Now, keep in mind that even a tropical storm with torrential rain can do a lot of damage.
I clearly remember Jeanne (2004). We were without water and power for weeks聽

Of course real hurricanes like Hugo and Georges do a lot more damage. I heard the stories..

Sitka Serial expat

953POSTS

9 years ago

#11

Good information.聽 I bookmarked all the web sites.

Locals had told me of similar beliefs that PR is not on the main hurricane paths.聽 Nevertheless, I appreciate the historical data as it is somewhat reassuring.聽 It is good to know that the typical path is from the south and the mountains will shelter us on the north side.聽 Pity the folks on the south side, they will need help if we are hit.

That being said, having been through several tropical storms and a direct hit hurricane, I have a healthy respect for the weather.聽聽It is not a fun event and don't recommend a big party.聽 Be a boy scout, be prepared.

ReyP ViP

5509POSTS

9 years ago

#12

As I was growing up my grandparents and great great grandparents used to tell me of those real old ones. I went thru one and several big storms. Yes repairs can take weeks. I remember the goverment bringing water trucks because the water system was contaminated and shutdown. Rivers for a bath.

lgustaf Serial expat

401POSTS

9 years ago

#13

I think that's much a function of the times, Rey. My grandparents and great-grandparents said the same thing about life after tornados would whip through their area of Iowa.

In the twelve years I've lived near Atlanta, tornados and bad storms have cauesd way more damage and loss of life than in PR. I was without heat or water during a consistant聽 week of sub-freezing temperatures.

adlin20 ViP

1057POSTS

9 years ago

#14

Some of the problem were due to the way hoses were constructed in the old. Most were in wood with metal roofs, nails instead of screws and lack of strong foundations. No codes were available or followed. Today most are done in concrete and the use of better materials had helped prevent major damages.

Justpeachyy Contributor

190POSTS

9 years ago

#15

The rain that's hitting the island right now, probably explains most outages. Lots of thunder and lightning in Carolina.

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ReyP ViP

5509POSTS

9 years ago

#16

I love a good thunderstorm in the country, the sound of the rain in the tin roof puts me to sleep and the thunder rocks me.

ReyP ViP

5509POSTS

9 years ago

#17

adlin20 wrote:
Don't be surprised if the neighbors are throwing a party and drinking. Hurricanes category 1-3 are significant of partying for some of the locals.

Hell a dog birthday, and just about anything is a good excuse for a party in PR.

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ReyP ViP

5509POSTS

9 years ago

#18

I wonder what the Puerto Rican - Jibaro Almanac has to say about the Huracan season.

dblahusch Active member

31POSTS

9 years ago

#19

Maybe the island hurricane path is due to Charlie the shaman?聽

1 member reacted to this post

olddawgsrule Serial expat

252POSTS

9 years ago

#20

Gary wrote:
Tracks of hurricanes that hit PR:

https://prd-wret.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws 鈥� ic/5_2.jpg

Click here for a larger version

Where did you compile this data? I'd like to see a larger version, like what were they and how they tracked聽 before reaching PR.

Some nice data! Thank you for sharing!

Gary ViP

1845POSTS

9 years ago

#21

olddawgsrule wrote:
Where did you compile this data? I'd like to see a larger version, like what were they and how they tracked聽 before reaching PR.

Don't credit me, I got this from the USGS site, here:

I posted a link to a larger version, here it is again: https://prd-wret.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws 鈥� ic/5_2.jpg

Here's a site where you can see the complete track of any hurricane in the past. It only seems to work on Internet Explorer (Firefox and Chrome didn't work for me)

Another good resource is Wikipedia. Here's a page with links to entries about storms that hit PR and/or passed close to the island in the past:

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Gary ViP

1845POSTS

9 years ago

#22

Justpeachyy wrote:
The rain that's hitting the island right now, probably explains most outages. Lots of thunder and lightning in Carolina.

Strange enough we did not lose power (yet?)聽

ReyP ViP

5509POSTS

9 years ago

#23

works in Safari

Justpeachyy Contributor

190POSTS

9 years ago

#24

Gary wrote:
Justpeachyy wrote:
The rain that's hitting the island right now, probably explains most outages. Lots of thunder and lightning in Carolina.

Strange enough we did not lose power (yet?)聽

I've been on social media like twitter, I'm really surprised how many people were without power and others perfectly fine. Some just recently posted they've been without power an hour, 8 hours, another since yesterday haven't had any power . Our lights flickered but didn't go out last night nor today. I've also read there's long wait times to report an outage, over an hour and others simply get hung up on. So many people resorting to social media to be heard.

ReyP ViP

5509POSTS

9 years ago

#25

As I understand about 5 thousand people in the island have power problems every day. Not the same ones of course. But 5k out of 3.5 million is not too bad.

Gary ViP

1845POSTS

9 years ago

#26

Do you get those numbers from AEE? If it's true it ain't too bad but somehow I have the feeling that it's a lot more. Not a fact, just a feeling..

ReyP ViP

5509POSTS

9 years ago

#27

I saw an article saying that on average 5k had issues on daily bases.
It all depends, some days less some more, depends on the nature of the issue.
Once this year the whole island was out which was extremely rare.

Justpeachyy Contributor

190POSTS

9 years ago

#28

That link is to AEE that shows reported outages. There's about 40 areas right now without power. I did read though on 5/1/17, 99% of people on the island had power.

Gary ViP

1845POSTS

9 years ago

#29

Looks like聽 mess today..聽

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westernprguy Active member

63POSTS

9 years ago

#30

Dramatic storms yesterday and today here in the Oeste in Las Marias. Not sure how it rained into the windows from all 4 sides of my house.聽 If this keeps up, I might have to, after 10 years of being here, buy my first clothes dryer.

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Justpeachyy Contributor

190POSTS

9 years ago

#31

Dramatic indeed!

This page on fb is always posting about the weather conditions. They currently have a live doppler of the rain going on now. Not looking forward to the flooded roads.

Gary ViP

1845POSTS

9 years ago

#32

Here's the radar loop directly from the source for those who don't have/want a facebook account

Make sure to set AutoUpdate to On so you keep getting the latest images.

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olddawgsrule Serial expat

252POSTS

9 years ago

#33

Don't credit me, I got this from the USGS site, here: 鈥� icanes-map

Credit due for finding the site and showing me!
Again, good Job Gary!

I kept the link Gary posted. Go to the site and click on 'set on map' for location.
All storms from the 1800's to now will show up!
Next go to 'advanced filters'.
On the right you'll see dates. Click on a start date, pick your end date while holding the shift key and voil脿, you have a set you can you and examine.

Zoom out now and see how and where it developed!

Fits my theory of water based.. Summer (hurricane season) head for Grenada (Well maybe Trinidad).

Gary ViP

1845POSTS

8 years ago

#34

Meanwhile we're in the (statistical) most busy weeks of the hurricane season.

Until now we haven't had any storms, so far, so good!

Yesterday and today a pretty strong tropical wave brought a lot of rain to the island.

Right now tropical storm Harvey is about to track over the lesser Antilles. This storm is forecast to stay south of PR. Two other systems in Atlantic are showing signs of development, the closest one, called 92L is forecast to pass PR on the north side and development is not expected to happen within the next three days or so.
The system in the east doesn't look to healthy right now and with some luck it will not develop either.

Nevertheless it only takes one storm to stir up a mess. Make sure you're ready. Water, gas, batteries, generator, food for some days, the works.

ReyP ViP

5509POSTS

8 years ago

#35

Gary wrote:
Meanwhile we're in the (statistical) most busy weeks of the hurricane season.

Until now we haven't had any storms, so far, so good!

Yesterday and today a pretty strong tropical wave brought a lot of rain to the island.

Right now tropical storm Harvey is about to track over the lesser Antilles. This storm is forecast to stay south of PR. Two other systems in Atlantic are showing signs of development, the closest one, called 92L is forecast to pass PR on the north side and development is not expected to happen within the next three days or so.
The system in the east doesn't look to healthy right now and with some luck it will not develop either.

Nevertheless it only takes one storm to stir up a mess. Make sure you're ready. Water, gas, batteries, generator, food for some days, the works.

You fofgot to tell them to stock up on Rum.