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Dollar to Real

O
#1
Look for the real to get weaker before Christmas.
US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has delivered a cautiously upbeat outlook for the US economy, signaling the conditions necessary for an interest-rate increase have been met.
The action will most likely be taken on December 16 when the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed policy-making group that sets the target rate, concludes its next two-day meeting.
See also
spanishpete
#2
have you seen the real to pound exchange rate, today,,,, R$6.00 to one British pound,
James
#3
Dollar is R$4.019 today! Yeah, and my pension gets deposited at midnight tonight, hope it opens even higher tomorrow!!!
3 members reacted to this post
O
#4
James,
Sounds like we are sailing on the same boat !
O
#5
Opinion: The current Real rally is not real, its being driven by speculator excitement amidst all the current impeachment media hype and false hopes that a new administration can pull the Brasil economy out of it's recession. Whatever happens its going to take a lot of time and a lot more pain. Watch for the real to slip back to around $R4.30 and close the year 2016 at $R5.00
1 member reacted to this post
A
#6

ohanasurf wrote:

Opinion: The current Real rally is not real, its being driven by speculator excitement amidst all the current impeachment media hype and false hopes that a new administration can pull the Brasil economy out of it's recession. Whatever happens its going to take a lot of time and a lot more pain. Watch for the real to slip back to around $R4.30 and close the year 2016 at $R5.00


I have also followed the hype on the Real as it seems to flow with the current wrangling of the political process,聽 it's been hovering between $R3.62 and $R3.59 since last week's potential appointment.聽 Just chiming in and waiting to see how the Real will work out this day.聽
Thanks for the insight

1 member reacted to this post
James
#7
And OUR Nero continues playing her fiddle while watching Rome burn... some people just never learn.

Cheers,
James
expat.com Experts Team
2 members reacted to this post
VictoriaChandler
#8

ohanasurf wrote:

Opinion: The current Real rally is not real, its being driven by speculator excitement amidst all the current impeachment media hype and false hopes that a new administration can pull the Brasil economy out of it's recession. Whatever happens its going to take a lot of time and a lot more pain. Watch for the real to slip back to around $R4.30 and close the year 2016 at $R5.00


Yikes! I hope you're wrong!

exnyer
#9
Buy when there's blood on the streets. In other words buy Brazil cheap now to cash in big on the coming change in government later. Investors are nothing if not pragmatic.
O
#10
Brazil's stock market is up 27 % this year on the speculation of new political leadership. Brazilian stocks currently at 13 times forward earnings, are trading at a premium to their historical values.
The "Bridge to the Future" is still over the horizon down a long and bumpy road with the same driver currently at the wheel and the now co-driver safely buckled in the seat due to a recent Supreme Court decision to take over the investigation of ex-president Lula.
Hopes that a new government is going to come in and tame the double digit inflation and slash a fiscal defecit of nearly 11% of GDP have spurred a rally in Brazil's financial market in recent weeks.
There is exaggeration in the Brasil stock market based on the speculation of a new administration headed by current vice-president Michele Temer will step in and put Brazil's house in order.
The rally in financial markets overestimates Temer's scope to push reforms needed to cope with recession, weak earnings and revive the economy through a Congress packed with 28 self-serving parties.
Should the move towards impeachment fail to pass through the lower house of Congress watch for investors to quickly fold on Brazil's stock market and place their bets on a more politically stable BRIC such as China or India.
2 members reacted to this post
exnyer
#11
VP Temer's resume on Reuters.

A
#12
The Real is holding in the 3.58- 3.60 to the USD. Now that there is a impeachment direction. I am curious how long it will hold at 3.58 as of 17/04/16 . It has fluctuated each day the impeachment process was in limbo, with limbo not being a factor now, I wonder what the daily fluctuations will be. Just food for thought.
exnyer
#13
It seems the big money may be hedging their bets, read here.

Brazil Investor Impeachment Euphoria Fades as Quickly as It Came

A
#14
Just fyi, if one has the time

Will Brazil Impeachment Stall Investments? - Emerging Markets Daily - Barrons.com

1 member reacted to this post
exnyer
#15
The article mentions "reverse FX" which ia another term for messing with the market. Brasil's currency was losing value so the government intervened to keep the value as high as possible.聽 This is done by selling any dollars that Brasil has in reserve.

This strategy works as long as Brasil has dollars to sell. Of course there is the not so small problem of the annual debt service due in-drum roll please-Dollars!

Just for grins, I was suffering the impeachment聽 vote Sunday night when I noticed the reasons being given by the congresspersons who voted "yea". For those of you whose command of Portuguese is limited, the list is here:

A
#16
Ex, I was reading where Brasil has 257 Billion in US Treasuries, I'm not that savvy with numbers yet it would seem a prudent person (no names needed here or insert a name) would sell off the fiat money and clear the debt. Just an idea.
take care and thanks for sharing the info.
1 member reacted to this post
exnyer
#17
Big Al,

Think of treasuries as CD's, if you cash them in early-you will actually lose money.聽 Brasil's best bet is to open up it's economy to free trade.

Brasil's economic policy is reactive. This guarantees a place at the kiddies table. Discipline is required.

Depressing the dollar against the real also makes US imports cheaper and Brasil's exports more expensive. Less demand leads to lower factory output, loss of jobs, you get the idea........

Free trade and the investment money that follows would mean Brasil could pay it's way out of debt. This would lower the debt service costs Brasil pays.

By having the power to pay debt using other peoples money, Brasil would be able to lower taxes while offering high quality services to the people. It all flows flows from an open non corrupt economic policy.

Corruption is the leech in this remedy. If lava jato fizzles out with the impeachment of Dilma, investors will seek more secure places to park their money.
VictoriaChandler
#18
As of today, US$ 1.00 = R$ 3.49.聽

Predictions? Will the Brazilian currency continue to strengthen? Or is this rally against the dollar just temporary?
A
#19

VictoriaChandler wrote:

As of today, US$ 1.00 = R$ 3.49.聽

Predictions? Will the Brazilian currency continue to strengthen? Or is this rally against the dollar just temporary?


It has been changing daily the best rate I've seen over the last 8 days has been 3.55 to 3.40, it seems to fluctuate with the political process for each time the powers that be are on the ropes the real goes up against the dollar and when off the ropes the real goes down. It all depends on the daily political front. I use the Google Currency Convertor to check daily for I send money weekly. I sent some last week at 3.54 and today so far it has bounced from 3.43 to 3.50 for it changes all day long.. I hope this makes sense . I noticed when impeachment talk is on the table the real is stronger, when it is not the real gets weaker. Just fyi

O
#20
When viewing the exchange rate of currencies one must exam both currencies.
In January the US Dollar was leading the world, today it is in a slump globally. Its my belief that currently this is having a greater affect on the dollar to real exchange rate than any daily political events occurring in Brasil.
stevefunk
#21
The Dollar has been strong , even the Canadian dollar devalued almost 50% , same with the currency in South Africa and pretty much every other country....
What has been happening in Brazil is nothing unique
VictoriaChandler
#22
$1 = R$ 3.45
A
#23
Hey VC, I am anxious to see when and if the power shift occurs if it will change I sent money last week and was able to lock in at R 3.54=1, when I sent the bucks it was R3,51 so i gained .03 and I sent the lady to the bank when it was bouncing between 3.48 and 3.54 so timing is everything for I have found that the bank gives the exchange rate at the time of pick up for I use Western Union for my transaction as the money is always Inbound to Belem. I think it might have a uptick once the process in Brassila settles down, if it ever settles down. I check the exchange rate several times daily, today was a shock . I am going to watch it for a few days and see what the possible power shift will do to the rate for it is supposed to settle with the expected power shift so I say to myself "good luck with that"/lol and yes this is a rant/kkkkk
Take care.
VictoriaChandler
#24
Hi, Alascana!聽 Just to double check: you're sending money from the U.S. to Brazil, so you're hoping that the Brazilian real doesn't gain against the U.S. dollar, right? (Hey, no need to feel guilty. If I were in your position, I'd feel the same way. kkk)

Well, if today's announcement from the new Minister of Finance is any indication of what will happen, my very amateur prediction based on everything I've heard and read is that the Brazilian real will bounce back - at least temporarily - on the hopes that this new government can cut spending, reduce the deficit, and get Brazil back on the road to economic recovery. Therefore, if you've got some money that you need to send to Brazil, I would send it soon before the Brazilian real improves its position. (But like you said, it wouldn't be a bad idea to continue to monitor for a few days and then pick the most opportune moment to send the $!) If, however, the money can wait - say, for 6 months to a year - then you could wait it out and see what happens further down the line.
VictoriaChandler
#25
$1 = R$ 3.53
1 member reacted to this post
stevefunk
#26
Developing world markets are expected to start recovering in 2017.
A
#27
Hey VC, I clocked it at 3.54 earlier today and I understand where you are coming from, yes I will always keep a account stateside for the days of high exchange just in case. I am sending money inbound and I usally did not care what the rate was, yet when I lost like a few dollars due to the bouncing real I got a little more cautious, Brazil is a Big Ship and it will take a few months to turn it around and regain the investments for the caution flag is flying. With the change of administration I am taking a wait and see approach for there are still problems of baggage for the new Administration folks (lol). I can't buy into the future hype of World Economics for Someone is Lying in the Banking World (lol) and I am just a day by day person. It is what it is. What I try to do is cover the price of the transfer and the bank fee and hopefully break even (lol) so the amount recieved in Reals is really,really,really close.
I am curious and will follow it closely next week for the lady will be out of town and hopefully by the time she returns to Belem there will be a pattern of belief or disbelief.
Have a good evening and thanks for the post. The Banksters are a wicked bunch (lol), the way the real bounces it's like every hour for I believe it was at 3.47 at its lowest yesterday and today 3.54 was my last check in for it is 2pm here in Alaska and the banks are closed in Brazil. I am anxious to see what the open is on Monday and as we say give it some time.
1 member reacted to this post
exnyer
#28
Today I got a hint of the economic policy to come. I went to buy Roundup, a product made in the USA and sold worldwide. I need it to control pasture grasses.

Turns out that new taxes and regulation were passed that effectively bans the sale of Roundup, at least in my area.

Good news!!!!! a Brasilian company has a product to fill the void!!!!!!

It costs the same but ahhhh it is not as strong and it won麓t聽 work on the grasses I have... but we have TONS of the stuff.

I wrote last April that taxes and non-competition is Brasil麓s answer to everything.
everything I predicted in that post is happening now.

Brasil is the land of the future AND ALWAYS WILL BE.
B
#29
I think they may have banned Roundup because it is really bad for the environment. Not positive though.
exnyer
#30
No that's not the case. Roundup breaks down and will not harm the environment. Besides I can still buy it in stores downtown or the next town over.

This is a case of political cronyism. Instead of making a product to compete with Roundup or any other product, a call is made and the product is no longer readily available.

This is a small but common example of what is wrong with Brasil's economic practices. I know of people who lost their businesses due to well connected competitors who made a phone call to the new political boss.

I have to admit that at first I had a hard time believing that this type of behavior was still occurring because I am used to how business is conducted in America (sorry I don't mean to compare).

Until Brasil allows for true free enterprise, The people will continue to pay too much for inferior products. As for me it is a minor inconvenience to drive to the next town over to pick up a quality product that's worth the cost.
A
#31
I don't think it's economics for there is another possible problem with Roundup. Don't know if there is any truth yet Roundup is聽 being banned in certain countries.

Cancer-Stricken Farmers Sue Monsanto Over Roundup
:cool::dumbom::offtopic:
Now back to what will the Real Exchange rate settle at this week. I'm looking for 3.60+ this week (kkkk/lol) and once again it's our good friend Monsanto working it's magic!
1 member reacted to this post
exnyer
#32
When ur right ur right, thanks Al and brazilfam for the heads up Roundup is being banned for non-commercial use. :(

Truth is I was just pissed. But the money is cushioning the blow, :D
A
#33
Mon.3.50,Tues.3.48,Wed.3.56, will we see 3.60, the USD gained on news of the Maybe rate hike in June. Whatever that means for Maybe it won't rain tomorrow. Just checking in.
1 member reacted to this post
exnyer
#34
Today Electrobras stock was rated as junk by Moodys. Trading on the stock was stopped, but not before a dumping of anything Brasilian, Even ETF's took a beating.

The CEO of Electrobras' nuclear arm stepped down as an investigation of corruption closed in.

There is speculation of the Chinese stepping in to save the day-but- if so there will be demands for a change in the way Brasil does business at all levels.

Interesting times indeed.
spanishpete
#35
yes this country is in real sxxt-street at the moment when it come's to money,
well other peoples money what I should of said
"Up the works"
exnyer
#36
Todays Schadenfreude:

12 May 2016 12:45 UTC - 19 May 2016 12:55 UTC
USD/BRL close:3.59412聽 low:3.46421 high:3.59521

CPI inflation Brazil聽 聽Unemployment聽 聽 GDP Growth
april 2016: 9.28 %聽 聽 聽 6.8%聽 聽 聽 聽 聽 聽 聽 聽 聽 聽 0 .1%

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to contract 3.7% in 2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month鈥檚 estimate. For 2017, the panel sees the economy growing 0.8%.

A newly elected President finds 2 envelopes on his desk addressed to him by the former President.

He opens the one that reads, open in the event of your first crisis.
The letter simply reads "Blame me"

After that he comes upon another tight spot, he opens the second letter. Written inside:

"Write your letters."

This is Temers first letter.

A
#37
Well here is a thought on the Real.
Brazil Real Drops With Emerging Markets as Commodity Prices Fall - Bloomberg

seems like the change is a ways off. Real hit 3.60 earlier today.
exnyer
#38
175 days and counting........
exnyer
#39
Every so often I try to find out the "progress" of the Games.

I thought this was interesting. If you have an ad blocker in your browser just hit the X in the site pane to stop the reroute and view this article.

It is worth the read.

A
#40

exnyer wrote:

When ur right ur right, thanks Al and brazilfam for the heads up Roundup is being banned for non-commercial use. :(

Truth is I was just pissed. But the money is cushioning the blow, :D


:offtopic:
Hey Ex, found this on Roundup and thought I'd share for it has some information that maybe of interest for I don't know how long you had been using the stuff.
New Evidence About the Dangers of Monsanto鈥檚 Roundup

Now back to the topic. The Real was pretty steady his week it fluctuated between 3.50 and 3.60 and for the weekend it's clocking 3.53 as of 04/06/16. Enjoy the Roundup Article it's a doozy. Take care

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