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Currency exchange

Inubia
#1
As an active investor I track the US$/BR Real聽 pretty closely, as it has a significant impact upon my activities.

Since the beginning of the anti-commerce governmental restrictions on account of covid, the world at large has generally regarded the US Dollar as a safe haven and the BR Real as a risky, "emerging market" currency.聽 The Real has lost enormous ground in the past 3 years.

I have personally long regarded that condition as subject to reversal.聽 My first reason has been that the overall markets had been underpricing the value and staying power of fossil fuel resources, and in the past few years Brazil has become one of the premier oil exporting nations in the western hemisphere.聽 My second reason is that I regard the current political situation in the USA as actively destructive, with vengeance, determined to undermine and ultimately destroy the value of the US dollar.聽 That opinion used to put me way, way out in left field but I find that I have more and more company every day now.

Anyways, what I wanted to point out is that since December, the Real has been steadily gaining ground on the US dollar.聽 In less than 8 weeks the ratio has gone from聽 5.74/1 to 5.24 to 1.聽 For reference what that means to you all is that if you were planning to buy a piece of property in Brazil for 100,000 reais, using USA-based assets, the price to you just became 9,500 cheaper ......

I am not an investment advisor, financial advisor, or licensed in any way to give any kind of advice on these matters.....and I聽 certainly cannot be held responsible for any decisions you might make ...I am not trying to persuade anyone to adopt any new or different financial opinion ... but I did want to call these changes to your attention.....
4 members reacted to this post
See also
B
#2
Brazil BC has been raising rates aggressively, brazil has some of the highest rates in the world,they're protecting their currency,betting against the dollar long term is risky,short term,speculative,anyones guess,i am a pro. Money manager,Lula brings a lot of unknowns to the table.
1 member reacted to this post
B
#3
I may add,Brazil BC is trying 2 control inflation, which is influenced by a strong dollar,but the dollar may get stronger聽 anyway,no one knows,many Brazilians in debt,higher rates in brazil a conundrum at best.
M
#4
This article claims that China's demand for commodities is pushing the real upward:

1 member reacted to this post
B
#5
Long term may be true,short term BC making aggressive moves,commodities have gone through boom- bust periods,would help real,yes,but Lulas proactive moves will impact currency,convential wisdom is fickled.
Brazil got the world cup,olympics,1st world here we come,nope..
Corruption, covid,Commodities,currency,china among other issues,but having the real collapse was paramount to an economic catastrophe im afraid,however economy may heal,i hope.
M
#6
It may not last regarding China buying commodities since they have figured out that by buying small companies in distress, they can work around Brazil's Constitutional prohibition against foreign individual investors buying large pieces of agricultural land. They are buying it up like crazy so that instead of buying the commodities they can grow their own on land they now own in Brazil, send it to seaports in Brazil that they now own (like Paranagua) and transport it on railways that they are building for Brazil and can use for free. They are doing the same in the U.S.
1 member reacted to this post
B
#7
Whatever you do ,start conservatively, as a pro,sooner or later,everything will happen,and sometimes luck is the overriding factor,china has its tentacles everywhere, much like america,once you think you got it figured out,ouch.Im waiting on lulas policies,could have a short term effect on the real.
Mikeflanagan
#8
Historically when I came to Brazil. And Lula was in power. There was more raw purchasing power with less money. And for my currency was a 2 to 1 ratio. Now I make a substancial amount of money but less purchasing power. If anything can revert the global financial stability to about 7 years ago that would be great
3 members reacted to this post
M
#9
Complicated, especially because I don鈥檛 speak Portuguese but otherwise fine. I am very familiar with the US real estate market and the transaction system there. Fortunately had good helpers and translators!
1 member reacted to this post
Texanbrazil
#10
Well for one I have been here when the dollar was at $3 to 1. Brazil was the same (except the covid era). Now BC has raised the interest rate again by 1,75 points. This means loans, banking fees, and credit card interest will go up in Brazil. This happens many times in Brazil and other countries. Food, cooking gas, and gasoline has increased dramatically in the last year,
Many use CC's to pay bills, gas, and food to get buy.
Never ending circle using credit in inflationary times.
I appreciate your concerns. What I do is give where it is needed. The low dollar would decrease help others for me. Additionally many here are under a retirement Visa. A lower dollar would decrease their ability to have the minimum funds to continue to live under a retirement visa unless they qualified for a permanent visa.
Most of us are guests in Brazil and have no say as to the government's actions.
3 members reacted to this post
Inubia
#11
Milowanders, sir:

"Your feelings" are a very poor guide for making investment decisions.聽 I guess you have not yet learned that you cannot change the world, and what you need to do is to look after yourself and your loved ones.

For example, you may think that "social justice investing" feels right to you.聽 However, if you had instead invested heavily in oil and gas last year when they were so cheap, the way that I did, then your finances聽 would be in much, much better shape today.

Meanwhile, the US dollar just dropped another 8 basis points against the Real.

The best strategy is to invest for the future, not the past ....
B
#12
Ive done well,but oil is something ive been dead wrong on,i own Petrobras ,i thought oil and gas would continue to underperform,not recently,did catch semis though.Tricky market.
Inubia
#13
I admire your fortitude.聽 I have played with Petrobras too but it makes me nervous, when I can have Suncor so cheap, and pipelines, and if I want to gamble there is always Gazprom....

"the narrative", the official propaganda from all the politicians and major news organizations, appear to be crumbling now on every front.聽 Elon Musk sold out and now he is predicting a depression, the truckers are making fools out of Trudeau, masks are coming off worldwide, MMT is being debunked, legal Latino immigrants are now all joining the Republican Party, and the woke people are all starting to run聽 or looking for a place to hide.
I'm looking for entry points to short GM, Pfizer and Moderna, and California and New York City.聽 I might risk more r.e. in the USA later on when it gets to around half of the current prices ......gracas a Deus para calma na Bahia ......
B
#14
Im looking 2 short oii,easy 2 get caught up in a slew of pessimism lately,however a lot of tech initiatives are still happening, great feeling to short and then turn it over long,if u not 2 negative long term.Rates r kickin ass though
B
#15
PBR went down to 2.71,bought it higher
Cheryl
#16
Hello everyone,

Please note that some off topic posts have been removed from this thread.

Kindly avoid political debates.

Cheers,

Cheryl
大咖福利影院 team
5 members reacted to this post
rraypo
#17

Cheryl wrote:

Hello everyone,

Please note that some off topic posts have been removed from this thread.

Kindly avoid political debates.

Cheers,

Cheryl
大咖福利影院 team


____
Thank you

3 members reacted to this post
Inubia
#18
Impossible to discuss oil without politics ....I cannot short it, yet, but then some of my holdings have been in the family for over a hundred years, faithfully paying dividends through thick and thin ....is it political to point out that the current ice extent in the Arctic is reported to be the largest it has been on this date since 2009?聽 It is not exactly melting, is it.聽 I keep a blog on substack (John's newsletter)聽 for anyone who wants more depth.聽 I listen to other points of view than my own.

It occurred to me that I might short "expat.com" before I shorted oil.聽 I went looking for the owner.聽 Its sponsored by a cloud-based application developer and vendor touting "Zero Trust security", the domain owner is listed as living in Mauritius but name withheld for privacy reasons, email address is 聽 聽 y4qbp7bjy5aw1mhoijub@e.o-w-o.info
good luck finding him .....I've got other things to do.
Texanbrazil
#19
This forum is about Brazil. It is not about stocks, bonds, and such.
Now taking on Expat website? Bad choice.
Use you blog for such please.
3 members reacted to this post
Julien
#20
@Inubia

I am the owner, as you can see on our about page

I am an expat living in Mauritius, my family is mauritian and I employ 20 people to run expat.com here.

You can find our physical address in our terms and conditions page

Its sponsored by a cloud-based application developer and vendor touting "Zero Trust security",


It's actually me who's paying cloudflare (a CND) $650 per month to make the website +30% faster for our international users.

Now what ?

Can you please respect our code of conduct and avoid politics ?

9 members reacted to this post
Texanbrazil
#21
Thanks, Julien,
Way and above an answer required, so hats off to you.
4 members reacted to this post
rraypo
#22
Thank you Julien.聽 This site is so very helpful to so many people
4 members reacted to this post
G
#23
I am a U.S. citizen wishing to live in Curitiba. What's the least costly way to convert dollars into reals?
1. ATMs
2. Wiring (free for me in U. S.) to a Brazilian bank
3. Bringing declared or minimal-non-declared dollars from trips and then depositing in bank
4. Bringing declared or minimal-non-declared dollars and using money exchange agencies
5. Using money transfer agencies like Western Union?

What I know already: I get a great exchange rate for reals on U.S. credit cards, which I plan to use a lot. Exchanging money in the States is expensive. I got a rate exchange rate for reals in Paraguay, and I don't know why.

Thanks much.
Texanbrazil
#24

Getting on wrote:

I am a U.S. citizen wishing to live in Curitiba. What's the least costly way to convert dollars into reals?
1. ATMs
2. Wiring (free for me in U. S.) to a Brazilian bank
3. Bringing declared or minimal-non-declared dollars from trips and then depositing in bank
4. Bringing declared or minimal-non-declared dollars and using money exchange agencies
5. Using money transfer agencies like Western Union?

What I know already: I get a great exchange rate for reals on U.S. credit cards, which I plan to use a lot. Exchanging money in the States is expensive. I got a rate exchange rate for reals in Paraguay, and I don't know why.

Thanks much.


ATM with your bank-approved system is fine, but when I first came I could only get $R 300 per 24 hrs. (If withdraw at 15:00 no funds until 15:00 the next day. (Saturday after 15: 00 and Sunday bank system is down).
Wiring money can only be done if you have a bank account. (need a CRNM to open an account.
Bringing U$D is great, but you will need a Cambio to exchange. (Gov. is cracking down on these.
Western Union I am not sure.

Paraguay is a totally different situation than BR. Many here in Foz, get caught taking or bringing U$D into BR. (They love laundering money in PY!)

2 members reacted to this post
Inubia
#25
You will get the best exchange rate by carrying US cash into Brazil and get it exchanged at a travel agency in a large shopping mall.....they are hungry for US dollar cash in order to sell to their clients going to the USA so they pay the best rates.
While this route gives the best exchange rates it also involves (by far) the most risks, I'm sure other people will tell you what the risks are if you can't figure them out for yourself.
2 members reacted to this post
B
#26
In my case,havin an account w fidelity investments, where they refund your atm fee,but i only use at bradesco聽 atms onl because their markup rate,until recently was only 1%,was better than cash dollares,now its up to 4.5%,still a ok deal.Also fidelity customer service is fantastic.
1 member reacted to this post
B
#27
Atms have daily maxes,got 2 cards,so 2k p/d for me.
abthree
#28
02/15/22

Avoid Western Union unless you have no other viable alternative.聽 Their fees are very high.
2 members reacted to this post
Kurterino
#29
Since you鈥檙e getting a good exchange rate with your CC: In case you don鈥檛 already know, a large majority of stores and shops not only accept credit cards, but actually prefer it to cash. You can pay for almost all of your daily needs (food, gas, pharmaceuticals, snacks, restaurants 鈥�)with your CC, and reserve your cash for stuff that must be paid in cash. I don鈥檛 know what鈥檚 better, importing cash and exchanging it here, or getting it from an ATM. I have been advised by several people that exchanging cash for a good rate is very difficult, so I have always used ATMs.
1 member reacted to this post
G
#30
Thanks to all for your comments and advice. Really appreciate it.

I plan on renting in Curitiba. Maybe a landlord might want dollars? Besides rent, I could use credit cards for almost all other needs? Or not? Maybe I could live without worrying much about exchange rate costs.

The idea is to avoid exchange fees聽 and other inefficiences as much as possible.
abthree
#31
02/15/22

Getting on wrote:

I plan on renting in Curitiba. Maybe a landlord might want dollars? Besides rent, I could use credit cards for almost all other needs? Or not? Maybe I could live without worrying much about exchange rate costs.
The idea is to avoid exchange fees聽 and other inefficiences as much as possible.


When I was visiting before becoming a resident, I would always get an AirB&B apartment on the US site with my US credit card for a month at a time, and avoid all the exchange and interpersonal issues of renting without a facilitator.聽 In fact, we still do this when vacationing in other parts of Brazil.

Renting a house or apartment in Brazil before you become a permanent resident can be difficult, but if you and the AirB&B property owner hit it off, you may be able to arrange a longer informal rental period.聽 And if you're not happy with the property or the owner, you can always move on.

1 member reacted to this post
B
#32
I got my card cloned in rio,not a good feeling, additionally,takes a while 2 get a replacement聽 card.For me,using cash,not cc or dc,soothes many concerns,its a delicate,personal choice.I know some horror stories,not gonna get into it,getting cash at specific atms,not anywhere, lets me sleep,even if i lost a couple cents on my rate.
1 member reacted to this post
Kurterino
#33
For this reason, I have a couple of 鈥榩repaid鈥� CCs and another one with a 1000$ credit limit. I only use my main card (with a higher limit) at ATMs that look trustworthy, and try to remember to briefly visually check it for telltale signs of previous manipulation.
I never reload more than 300$ on my prepaid cards, that way the damage would be very minor if it gets stolen or cloned. This allows me to use them more or less indiscriminately, without worrying.

boombop4477 wrote:

I got my card cloned in rio,not a good feeling, additionally,takes a while 2 get a replacement聽 card.For me,using cash,not cc or dc,soothes many concerns,its a delicate,personal choice.I know some horror stories,not gonna get into it,getting cash at specific atms,not anywhere, lets me sleep,even if i lost a couple cents on my rate.

2 members reacted to this post
Inubia
#34
US dollar today is down to 5.13 reais ....and still falling .... given the rate of collapse of the dollar, I'd say the most important consideration might be to do any exchange you can (dollars to reais) any way you can as soon as you can, to get the best rate.
B
#35
Brazil has some the highest rates in the world,this is protecting their currency, oil sky high,bolsonaro might be gainin in the polls,short term occurences?Only time will tell.Whether these sky high rates,hurt the brazilian consumer,we shall see,perfect storm,yet real still fairly weak.
1 member reacted to this post
Texanbrazil
#36
Check again U$D/R is 5.17.
1 member reacted to this post
Texanbrazil
#37
Hello everyone,

Please note that some off topic posts have been removed from this thread.

Kindly avoid political debates.

Cheers,

Cheryl
大咖福利影院 team
2 members reacted to this post
abthree
#38
02/17/21

I'm not trying to make any money on currency, just live a good life in Brazil.聽 Same transfer every month, some months we can live a little higher on the hog and have a little more for our charities, some months a little less.

I do agree that the Real is being held up artificially, and that can't last forever.聽 聽During my first full month here, the dollar was at R$3.17.聽 I never expect to see a rate like that again, but if we do, we'll probably be facing bigger problems than mere currency.
2 members reacted to this post
rraypo
#39
I started going to Brazil about 15-years ago. It seems to me back then, the rate was like R$1.6 to $1. U.S. dollar
1 member reacted to this post
B
#40
Bottom line,we are living in a very fickled time,not saying brazil is a bad investment, but if you do make a substantial investment in brazil,hedge your investment,im currently thinkin of shorting oil,because i have an investment in semis.

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