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Tracking Irma

Sitka
#1
This new storm track is making me concerned.聽 PR may be in the path - currently a cat 2, but predicted to grow.聽 Best keep a close eye on this one for the next week or so.聽 聽 :o
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lgustaf
#2
And I'm coming down the 7th. Hope I can get in. Luckily, VSJ is historically one of the safest places to be.
ReyP
#3
They expect it to reach Cat 4 by Tuesday based on the news. Also by Tuesday they will have a better idea of where it is heading. Right now they said it is turning south but they expect on Monday or tuesday to nake a move northward. Acording to the news if it turns north early it will like miss us completely but if it turns later it may grace us or worse. It is too far yet for them to know and as it gets closer the warmer waters will make it pickup strnght and affect its trajectory. We will know better on Monday.
Sitka
#4
I am off the island for this one, but it could be bad.聽 We've been watching too much of Harvey on the news.聽 聽

We have been through several tropical storms and Ike - it ain't any fun!!
lgustaf
#5
I stopped off at Key West before heading to Cuba some weeks ago and knew right then conditions were ripe for big ones. The ocean temperature there was 93 degrees. Hot enough to kill off reefs and force sharks way up the coast to cooler waters. Likewise, ocean temps along the west African coast have been at record-breaking highs. Air over water that warm can become super-saturated and slow moving if the ocean temps are likewise warmer out to sea. That makes for a very volatile situation.

Although Irma is currently headed toward the Caribbean, I think it mght swing northward, as the ocean temps are very high all the way up the coast and the only thing that stands in its way are cooler oceans much further north.聽 If it does swing northward, it could turn into another Sandy.
ReyP
#6

lgustaf wrote:

I stopped off at Key West before heading to Cuba some weeks ago and knew right then conditions were ripe for big ones. The ocean temperature there was 93 degrees. Hot enough to kill off reefs and force sharks way up the coast to cooler waters. Likewise, ocean temps along the west African coast have been at record-breaking highs. Air over water that warm can become super-saturated and slow moving if the ocean temps are likewise warmer out to sea. That makes for a very volatile situation.

Although Irma is currently headed toward the Caribbean, I think it mght swing northward, as the ocean temps are very high all the way up the coast and the only thing that stands in its way are cooler oceans much further north.聽 If it does swing northward, it could turn into another Sandy.


yup, good points.

Sitka
#7
I'll be watching like hawk.聽 Life's a Beach!聽 聽 :cool:
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ReyP
#8
I just received an alert from. PR newspaper that Irma is a cat 3 now.
1 member reacted to this post
lgustaf
#9
OMG, Rey.

We flew around Ivan on the way to PR when it was raging. From that vantage point, it looked like an extra-terrestrial monster with a mind of its own. It was massive and stretched as far as the eye could see in all directions. One inpenetrable mass of swirling clouds.
ReyP
#10
Sometimes mother nature gets pissed off and we just have to run for cover.
ReyP
#11
I guess the fruits in my lot will be flying if it hits or brushes PR.
Hope i dont have to remove a boat and a couple of cars from my lot that the storm decided to deposit there.
Sitka
#12
When Ike hit my area in Texas, there were many boats, some large sail boats (40'+) washed ashore inland half mile or so - deposited in yards and streets with all the other debris, some were too big to load up, so they were cut up with chain saws to clear the area.聽 聽 :sosad:
Marion-Olga
#13
I am scared to death!聽 :sosad:
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Sitka
#14

Marion-Olga wrote:

I am scared to death!聽 :sosad:


where are you located?

ReyP
#15
115 mile sn hour winds so far and expected to grow stronger into a cat 4, not sure but cat 4 is around 150 miles an hour.

Marion, if you inside you only have to worry about loosing power and water. If you are high up no problem with floding but may have to wait a ciuple of days before floding of roads is gone. Trees do come down so even if the water does down the roads could be blocked with all sorts of junk so may take a few more before they are passable. Crews will be real busy. Worst one in my lifetime electric went away for 3 weeks in some places and water for two weeks. But it is rare for PR to get hit, most times they miss us or brush us only. Given the issues with AES and AAA long periods may occur since they have not been doing maintenace. Keep lots of water and canned food, and fill up the tank a few days before. No electricity no gas stations.
ReyP
#16
Some stupid people go surfing during a storm like that. Seen it many times in PR.
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Sitka
#17

ReyP wrote:

Some stupid people go surfing during a storm like that. Seen it many times in PR.


I would call that nature's way of cleansing the gene pool.聽 聽:D

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Marion-Olga
#18

ReyP wrote:

115 mile sn hour winds so far and expected to grow stronger into a cat 4, not sure but cat 4 is around 150 miles an hour.

Marion, if you inside you only have to worry about loosing power and water. If you are high up no problem with floding but may have to wait a ciuple of days before floding of roads is gone. Trees do come down so even if the water does down the roads could be blocked with all sorts of junk so may take a few more before they are passable. Crews will be real busy. Worst one in my lifetime electric went away for 3 weeks in some places and water for two weeks. But it is rare for PR to get hit, most times they miss us or brush us only. Given the issues with AES and AAA long periods may occur since they have not been doing maintenace. Keep lots of water and canned food, and fill up the tank a few days before. No electricity no gas stations.


I live in Mayag眉ez close to the beach. We will leave to my husbands mother house in the mountains because I am sure our Area will get flooded since we live near the river.
I have to take my horse, 3 dogs and 3 cats.
The worst storm I experienced was a tropical storm and that was scary enough for me!
Oh well, what can we do, we have to go thrue it!

Marion-Olga
#19

Sitka wrote:
Marion-Olga wrote:

I am scared to death!聽 :sosad:


where are you located?


Mayag眉ez. My husband told me stories about GEORGE. I don't want to go thrue this!聽 :sosad:

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ReyP
#20

Marion-Olga wrote:
Sitka wrote:
Marion-Olga wrote:

I am scared to death!聽 :sosad:


where are you located?


Mayag眉ez. My husband told me stories about GEORGE. I don't want to go thrue this!聽 :sosad:


you can head to mainland for a few days and comeback after husband cleans up and power and water are restored. :cool:

ReyP
#21

Marion-Olga wrote:

I am sure our Area will get flooded since we live near the river.
I have to take my horse, 3 dogs and 3 cats.
The worst storm I experienced was a tropical storm and that was scary enough for me!
Oh well, what can we do, we have to go thrue it!


Welcome to paradise!!!!

ReyP
#22

Sitka wrote:
ReyP wrote:

Some stupid people go surfing during a storm like that. Seen it many times in PR.


I would call that nature's way of cleansing the gene pool.聽 聽:D


Yes, lucky for us stupidity tends to be fatal.

2 members reacted to this post
adlin20
#23
Rey,

Avocados and quenepas had been in abundance this year. Grampa used to say that when fruits are in abundance like this we are due for stormy weather. I hope he is wrong this time. I heard this from some other older folks lately.
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ReyP
#24

adlin20 wrote:

Rey,

Avocados and quenepas had been in abundance this year. Grampa used to say that when fruits are in abundance like this we are due for stormy weather. I hope he is wrong this time. I heard this from some other older folks lately.


Good to know, I never heard that before.

lgustaf
#25
RE; the surfers. I had an anthropology professor who theorized that Neanderthals were way smarter than modern humans, because to be a dumb Neanderthal is to be a dead Neanderthal.

There might be some truth to that.
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Marion-Olga
#26

ReyP wrote:
Marion-Olga wrote:

I am sure our Area will get flooded since we live near the river.
I have to take my horse, 3 dogs and 3 cats.
The worst storm I experienced was a tropical storm and that was scary enough for me!
Oh well, what can we do, we have to go thrue it!


Welcome to paradise!!!!


Thank you Ray! That will be your paradise also soon!聽 ;)

johnbmaryk
#27
Rey is correct.聽 Puerto Rico is only a speck in the ocean and the likelihood of a hurricane hit is low as any variance in the storm's path can take it to the north or south of the island.

However, if a hurricane does happen to hit, it could be bad.聽 Rey also mentioned the worse for him was 3 weeks without electricity.聽 I've had the pleasure to experience 2 hurricanes in PR, Hugo and then Georges.聽 I lived in the southeast, halfway between Humacao and Naguabo and each time we were without electricity for 2 months.聽 Yup 2 months.聽 Water came back after a day or two but not power.
Sitka
#28
Yea, the aftermath is miserable, no power, no gas, no AC, grocery stores closed, etc.聽 聽I took a few weeks for my area in TX to get back to basic services after Ike.聽 In PR, it will certainly take much longer if it takes a direct hit.聽

Without power our freezer thawed and had to cook all the steaks - we had a large BBQ for the boys in the dorm at UT.聽 聽They liked that.聽 :top:

Seriously, if you live in storm / costal area, you need to prepare in advance.
1 member reacted to this post
KWRealEstate_Act2022
#29
When I use to live in the mountain area Utuado, when Hurricane George hit us we were close to 2 months without electricity, for water we went to the river and we were eating meat even for breakfast. It was hard coming form Jersey but we had a nice time playing board games and spending quality time with the family. In those times we learn how to appreciate lil things as much as big things in life. Keep safe and buy alot of can food and water.
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Sitka
#30
I have a check list.

fill gas tank in cars , flashlights, battery, water, food,聽 plan an escape route, location to stay with on high ground for a few days or more if you need to evacuate.聽 Some people have hurricane shutters or plywood for windows.聽 Emergency generator can be really handy if power is off a long time.
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WarnerW
#31
Sitka, you must have been a Boy Scout!
Sitka
#32
Yes, but more importantly experience teaches hard lessons.聽 Now watching the aftermath of Harvey on tv - we have many old friends back in Texas dealing with the mess.
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Sitka
#33
This may be a an improved storm track.聽 keeping my fingers crossed.聽 :top:
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Gary
#34
Get your info from the most reliable source, the National Hurricane Center:聽

Latest track forecast here:

As of Sat, 9-2 6:00 PM we are in the cone which means that Irma could hit the island. Nevertheless, the predicted track keeps the storm like 170 miles north of the island which would be far away enough to spare us the strongest winds.

Keep in mind that the errors in the predicted track are larger for day 4 and 5.
G
#35
I clicked your link but it had nothing to do with weather. Maybe I got misdirected.

Irma. Too soon to get out of Dodge. Maybe not too soon to lift your boat. Do some bottom maintenance until the coast is clear.聽

Where Irma is Tuesday at 0001 hs, currently at 15 knots headed West based on NOAA Advisory #14 at 5:00pm AST, will determine if the Sector jumps the Advisory for a late Wednesday hit.

Our forecaster's use the North American GFS hurricane forecasting model of course, as opposed to the Euro ECMWF model. Technical meteorological science. Wonks can research the differences. One is the degree of resolution in the satellite images. But won't matter--either it's comin direct, or close, or missing us and nothing is going to change that, everybody knows.

I hope the GFS model is accurate this time, shows Puerto Ricans can dodge getting out of Dodge.

The American model has it swinging north pretty soon and avoiding PR.

The Euro model has PR in Irma's sights.

Talked to my Homies this morning, worried a lot about the east coast.

The Euro was 100% correct about New Jersey re: Sandy. The GFS model sadly took a black eye because it was wrong, very very badly, said she would harmlessly head out to sea.
Gary
#36
The links I posted should work, I just double checked.
I didn't want to get too much into the different models but the Euro has been performing better lately than the GFS and the NHC stays closer to the Euro track than the GFS track.

One model or another, beyond day 5 it's not accurate at all, it indicates a trend that may (or may not) happen. I trust the NHC forecasters, they know their trade and look at a lot more than only a computer model.

It looks like this is going to be a close call. 150-180 miles more south means a full hit of a major hurricane while the current track will bring some tropical storm force winds and a lot of rain.
We'll know more after the weekend.
G
#37
No Gary, I meant Sitka's link. popped up with a Financial data website.

Appreciate your posts I've read so far, see you been in PR awhile.

A great Labor Day holiday to all. Labor is very big in PR, saw that daily on the docks during my tour.
A benefit of an American Territory not available in the Independent countries in Caribe.
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DarleneR
#38
Hello everyone. I moved here recently by myself. I live on the beach near Ocean Park in San Juan and I am starting to get a little freaked out. I am considering heading stateside.
Justpeachyy
#39

DarleneR wrote:

Hello everyone. I moved here recently by myself. I live on the beach near Ocean Park in San Juan and I am starting to get a little freaked out. I am considering heading stateside.


Hi! If you have nothing tying you here permanently and have the option to go stateside I'd leave. Especially if it's an option for you. My family can't leave and we have little ones but we ave a somewhat safe place to go and have stocked up our condo.

There's a lot of uncertainty until Sunday, by then we'll have a better picture. I'm sure we all know the quality of service we get with electric and water on windy days, imagine during a hurricane. I hope you have a generator and stock up if you stay!

Gary
#40
I agree with Justpeachyy, if you can get out of here and have nothing that you need to keep an eye on, I'd leave.
Leaving is no option for us so we are completing our preparations.

The forecast keeps adjusting the probable track closer to PR because of the uncertainty when the WSW movement will stop and Irma is supposed to move NW again. A little longer delay will track the storm full over PR.聽 :blink:

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